This retreat risks undermining global development efforts and, according to projections, will result in millions of preventable deaths over years to come.
Significant cuts to foreign aid budgets across Europe could result in 11.5 million deaths, according to a 2026 report, as the UK, France, Germany and other European nations realign their spending priorities. The findings come as European governments increase defence spending amid geopolitical tensions, alongside a rise in right-wing influence and the Trump administration’s decision to dismantle USAID.
“Led by its three largest donors, Europe is moving towards a ‘new normal’ of significantly reduced international engagement, not as a temporary adjustment, but as a structural shift,” reported the Barcelona Institute for Global Health. The organisation added that cuts of this scale represent political decisions rather than simple budgetary adjustments, with devastating consequences for millions of lives.
Indeed, the figures point to a broader trend extending beyond Europe’s largest donors, with the European Union (EU) cutting its foreign aid budget by 13.8% in 2025, in comparison to a 10% national average reduction. While Foreign aid contributions, measured through Official Development Assistance (ODA), rose 35% between 2020 and 2023, driven largely by crises such as COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, they declined to just 0.26% of Gross National Income (GNI) in 2025, suggesting a deeper structural realignment across Europe.
Experts argue the budget cuts reflect a broader political shift, with development cooperation becoming less central to national policy agendas. In particular, the rise of far-right parties has increased pressure to redirect spending towards domestic priorities, while the war in Ukraine and threat of an escalating trade conflict with the US have further encouraged governments to prioritise defence spending over foreign aid.
Last year, Britain announced foreign aid cuts alongside plans to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, rising to 3.5% by 2035, in line with NATO targets. Germany and France have similarly increased military spending while cutting developmental aid, with France also facing a record deficit, political instability and far-right opposition to foreign aid.
The Netherlands has also slashed its foreign aid budget, with an increased focus on trade, economic and migration interests and prioritisation of areas such as food security and healthcare. Finland has adopted a similar approach, while Sweden is directing greater resources towards defence, policing and domestic welfare.
The United States, under President Trump, is a major catalyst for this broader trend, and has slashed its foreign aid budget by an unprecedented 57%, accounting for the largest share of the global funding shortfall. Yet, at a time of growing pressure for Europe to fill the gap left by the US, European governments are instead scaling back their own commitments. This retreat risks undermining global development efforts and, according to projections, will result in millions of preventable deaths over years to come.
“Rather than breaking from the Trump administration’s cruel dismantling of USAID” said Oxfam International Executive Director Amitabh Behar, “G7 countries like the UK, Germany, and France are instead following the same path, slashing aid with brutal measures that will cost millions of lives.”
The United Nations reports that the humanitarian impact of foreign aid cuts is already widely being felt, with millions of vulnerable individuals already being deprived of vital access to healthcare, food and other essential services.
The consequences are particularly stark in the health sector. The UN estimates a rise in deaths linked to AIDS from 1,700 per day in 2023 to 2,400 in 2025, with a further 300,000 children projected to die from AIDS-related causes between 2025 and 2029, as a result of cuts to aid funding.
However, the consequences of reduced aid extend far beyond healthcare, with significant implications for poverty, economic security and food security. Oxfam estimates that aid cuts could push more than 19 million additional people in Africa below the poverty line by 2030.
As a result of the funding shortfall, organisations such as the World Food Programme (WFP) have been forced to dramatically scale back emergency food assistance, affecting up to 16.7 million people. More broadly, The Lancet Global Health journal projects that reduced aid from both the US and Europe could result in more than 22 million avoidable deaths by 2030, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
Critics, such as British foreign secretary David Miliband, argue that while European reductions in foreign aid undermine international commitments, sustained cuts to development assistance could have long-term economic and strategic implications for Western countries themselves, beyond the immediate humanitarian consequences.
“An untended humanitarian crisis is an incubator of political instability. We are in a more connected world than ever before,” states Miliband. From this perspective, the consequences of aid reductions extend beyond their direct impact on recipient countries, potentially affecting the long-term interests and security of ‘donor nations’.
Whether European governments have fully considered these potential consequences, and how they would respond if aid reductions contribute to greater geopolitical inequality, remains to be seen.
Aoife Ruppin-Giltenane – Foreign Correspondent