On this Sunday, April 12, Hungary will hold one of the most significant elections in its history, with profound implications for the European Union. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has been in office since 2010 (and previously served as PM from 1998 to 2002), is seeking a 5th consecutive term.
His Fidesz party is currently trailing the main opposition leader, and former Fidesz member, Péter Magyar MEP, in the polls. Over the last decade, Orban has emerged as one of the EU’s biggest critics and most recently vetoed a support package for Ukraine, despite having an opt-out from its requirements. Magyar, whilst holding many conservative beliefs, advocates a more constructive relationship with the EU and seeks to end corruption and division in Hungary.
According to a poll taken at the end of March by the 21 Research Centre, the Magyar Tisza party has the support of 56% of decided voters, while Fidesz has the backing of 37%. Crucially, more than a quarter of voters (26%) did not know who they would vote for, highlighting that the end of the campaign period may be crucial to the eventual results.
This poll does not reflect the structural imbalance that Orbán has created in Hungary, which strongly favours Fidesz. The media watchdog Reporters Without Borders has warned that Oligarchs connected to Orbán have bought many local and national media groups to cement Orbán’s influence on the entire media market. It estimates that Fidesz, directly or indirectly, controls about 80% of Hungary’s media market.
In recent years, Hungary has altered many election rules due to Fidesz’s supermajority in parliament. It has changed the district boundaries, leaving some underrepresented compared to others, and critics have called this gerrymandering.
Fidesz also allowed ‘voter tourism ’, enabling Hungarian residents to vote in any constituency they wish, potentially making the difference in close races. Since 2014, Hungary has given 2 million ethnic Hungarians the right to vote in Hungarian elections, of whom 500,000 have exercised it. These mostly older voters vote over 90% for Fidesz and can vote by post.
This contrasts heavily with the stricter rules for Hungarians living further away, who are often younger and anti-Fidesz. They must vote at Embassies and meet several procedural requirements, resulting in much lower turnout.
The Price of the Vote is a recent documentary that has highlighted organisations and politicians linked to the governing party who have allegedly offered money to poorer communities in exchange for their votes, accusations the government strongly denies. Watchdog Freedom House describes Hungary as partly free and no longer a full democracy due to Orbán’s influence over state institutions such as the courts, financial institutions and media landscape. These institutions, alongside a Fidesz-friendly Hungarian President, could hinder Magyar’s reform agenda before it even begins.
Despite Orbán’s strained relationship with most other EU Member States, he enjoys a strong relationship with United States President Donald Trump. Hungary has become a model for the American right, with the 2022 Republican-affiliated CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference) held in Hungary and Orbán as a keynote speaker.
The US government has intensified its support for Hungary, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio describing a “Golden Age” in US-Hungarian relations. Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Hungary on the 7th and 8th of April, just days before the election. Trump officially endorsed Orbán in a social media post on March 24. He called for people to vote for Orbán, whom he deemed to be a “truly strong and powerful Leader”. The poll this Sunday may reflect a proxy war between the interests of the United States and the majority of the European Union.
Thomas Andrews – Foreign Correspondent