“They’ll call our movement un-Texan, un-American. They’ll call us a threat. The only truth is, we are a threat.” With those words, the Texan Democratic Representative James Talarico celebrated his triumph and a step closer to the Senate. Talarico is running for U.S. Senate in Texas in the upcoming November midterm elections. His campaign website describes him as a “former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian” who’s “led the fight against the billionaire mega-donors and puppet politicians who have taken over Texas.”
For the better part of a decade, Western politics has been defined by the rise of right-wing populism: Alternative for Germany (AfD), Giorgia Meloni in Italy, and Reform UK are just some examples. However, the most grandiose development in this field has been the success of ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) Republicans in America, headed by Donald Trump.
Rooted in xenophobia, populism and evangelicalism, the American right-wing movement constitutes a broader worldwide movement, connecting similarly oriented parties and individuals into a global network. However, there is a change afoot in the MAGA heartlands that might indicate the recession of right-wing politics in America.
At the centre of this realignment is the Yellow Rose of Texas. When it comes to the number of representatives and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Texas, a historically deep-red state, is the second-largest electorate in the union after California. Since the 1980 Presidential Election, Texas’s Electoral College delegation has voted Republican. Moreover, the Senate seats have remained Republican since 1988, underscoring the entrenched nature of Texas politics.
The preliminary polling data for the coming midterm elections is monumental, as the Democratic candidate, James Talarico, is making promising advances. Polls published by the Public Policy Polling and Impact Research in mid-March 2026 show that Talarico is estimated to win over possible Republican candidates, John Cornyn and Ken Paxton, by one to two per cent.
While the margin for Talarico is thin, the polling data indicates a close race and a possible immense political upset. A Democratic victory in Texas would have a deep impact on national politics, not least because of the close balance between the two parties within the Senate. Talarico would also push the Democrats closer to an overall majority within Congress. More importantly, however, his victory in Texas would signify the end of decades of Republican hegemony. Turning perhaps the most important red state into a potential swing state that could decide future elections, reinvigorating the Democrats in Texas and nationally. This could have a powerful impact on the development of American politics.
Talarico is not the only possible cause of political upset in the upcoming November elections. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper is challenging Republican incumbent Senator Thom Tillis, who is not seeking re-election. The polling data, once again, suggests a close race, with Cooper holding a three-point advantage over the Republican candidate, Michael Whatley.
In Georgia, the 2021 Democratic winner, Jon Ossoff, serves as a model for rising blue candidates in difficult red states. He defeated the incumbent, David Perdue, by a razor-thin margin, but has now solidified his position. Giving hope to the many Democratic candidates facing an uphill battle.
Why is This Happening?
At least two important factors are clearly playing into the hands of the Democratic candidates: the low approval ratings of the current Republican regime and the populist shift in the Democratic approach. First and foremost, the approval ratings of President Donald Trump, the indisputable leader of MAGA Republicanism, are unprecedentedly low, as indicated by the polling from The Economist and Reuters. The President’s overall approval is well under 40 per cent among Americans. Such a low approval rating, if it remains so until November, will certainly affect the coming midterm elections. It also helps explain the current Democratic polling surge.
Another key factor behind the current Democratic momentum is the populist approach, evident in the campaigning of Talarico, Ossoff, and, to a lesser extent, Cooper. For example, Talarico has effectively employed his charismatic Christian preacher persona, gaining ground among more conservative Christian households while also criticising the hyper-rich. At least for the moment, the mixture of low Republican ratings and confident Democrat populism seems to be paying off. Even if defeated, Talarico’s campaign stands as an example of Republican vulnerability when faced with low ratings and confident Democratic opposition.
Talarico as an Allegory for World Politics?
The campaign season for the upcoming midterms is still in its early stages, and it is impossible to predict how American politics will develop in the coming months, especially amid the extremely volatile international political and economic environment. However, it is safe to say that at the moment, the Republican dominion over American politics is shaking. This is a consequence of the policy failures of the Republican government and the Democratic Party employing the methods that Trump and many of his political allies have been using since 2015.
In Talarico’s words, “we are a threat” rings ever louder, and the Yellow Rose of Texas could soon be a new shade of blue. Right-wing defeat in America would send shockwaves across the globe, profoundly weakening the radical right and the MAGA-aligned parties. At least, it would mean a re-orientation of American policy in Europe, from the antagonism of Trump back to the ‘special’ relationship that the US and Europe have fostered to varying degrees since the end of the Second World War.
Jasper Littiäinen – Contributor