On the 24th February 2022, Russia began its illegal invasion of Ukraine. Four years on, the European Union is increasingly divided on its relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
In December of 2025, EU governments struggled to reach an agreement on underwriting a proposed €210 billion financial assistance program for Ukraine, despite support from most EU countries. This was due to the European Council, the EU institution composed of EU heads of Government, requiring unanimous support for such an agreement. However, a settlement was reached with Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, all of which are governed by more EU-sceptical leaders who are less supportive of aid to Ukraine. Under this agreement, these three countries would be exempt from contributing to or underwriting this financial package.
However, on the 23rd of February, the Hungarian government used its veto power to block the final agreement. This is because, since the 27th of January, no Russian oil has been travelling through the country into Hungary and other EU countries. The 4,000 km Druzhba pipeline, which is currently not operational, is a key energy source for Slovakia and Hungary and is exempt from EU sanctions on imported Russian refined oil.
Whilst Ukraine maintains that the stoppage is due to technical problems caused by Russian attacks on the pipeline, the Hungarian and Slovak governments claim that this stoppage is a deliberate decision by the Ukrainian government. The Hungarian Prime Minister claimed that Ukraine could restart the oil flow if it wanted and that he was not “in a position to support any decision whatsoever favourable to Ukraine until they return to normality”. This decision was decried by many EU officials, with EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Affairs Kaja Kallas describing it as a “setback and unwanted message”, whilst vowing that the work to continue Ukraine support would continue.
Since the beginning of the war, the EU has contributed over €75.7 billion in aid to Ukraine. This includes aid packages comprising financial, humanitarian, and military aid. Neutral countries such as Ireland do not contribute to any lethal aid and instead focus on non-lethal military aid, such as helmets and defensive equipment.
It is important to note that within the same period, the US provided $127 billion in support for Ukraine, with an additional $20 billion in loans. It is, however, unlikely that the US will continue to fund Ukraine at similar levels. The International Monetary Fund estimates that Ukraine will need €135 billion in aid for 2026 and 2027.
The Hungarian government’s decision to block the package was accompanied by fresh threats from it and the Slovakian government regarding access to Russian oil. The countries are threatening to cut off emergency electricity supplies. The Ukrainian government condemned these as “ultimatums and blackmail”. It said that this would exacerbate the Ukrainian energy crisis, which is leaving thousands of Ukrainians without power, heating or electricity during the Winter.
Ukraine says it is working constantly to repair the pipeline and is exploring alternative supply routes. Such rhetoric from the two governments further exposed the disunity within the European bloc regarding support for Ukraine.
These decisions by Prime Minister Orbán are happening in the context of the upcoming April Hungarian Parliamentary Elections. Orbán, who has been in power since 2010, is facing his most competitive threat to the premiership, and is currently trailing the Opposition leader (and former party colleague) Péter Magyar MEP.
Orban has attempted to portray Magyar as too close to both Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen. According to Politico, this has caused Orbán to make decisions against Ukraine for his own domestic political advantage. Orbán has accused Magyar of remaining “shamefully silent” about the lack of oil running through Ukraine and has said that electing Magyar would be electing a “Pro-Ukrainian” government instead of a ‘Pro-Hungarian one’.
Regardless of the reasons, disunity within the European Bloc is preventing it from being a fully reliable partner to Ukraine and has reduced its influence in any potential future Ukraine peace talks. Whilst the financial assistance package for Ukraine is being debated and the political discussions and positioning persist, the war in Ukraine, now entering its 5th year, very much continues.
By Tom Andrews